The United States needs to embrace the possibility that it may not be the most powerful nation in the world forever. China, for instance, causes a lot of unnecessary anxiety in many Americans who fear that China may overtake “their” number one spot on the international stage. However, when Great Britain was forced to hand over the reigns to the US after losing the top position in the 20th century, they still were able to remain influential in the world, with their people still living relatively prosperous. What the US needs to do with regards to China is make sure that they do not try to overthrow the current international system, which is highly unlikely for a number of reasons.
China has taken some insignificant steps that could be interpreted as steps to overhaul the current international system. They just recently have been adamant about controlling the East China and South China seas. However, the international community intervened and responded to China’s shift in naval policy offering to help settle the disputes surrounding the seas islands and resources.
What’s more, China has an incentive to maintain the current international system. China has already experienced the benefits of participating in the international organizations, such as the WTO, as well as the IMF, where their percentage of votes increased to 3.6% in 2006 from 2.9%. eConversely, skeptics contend that China may want to transform the international system to punish the West for rectification because of past discriminatory actions taken by the West. Many of the acts that were perceived by the Chinese as oppressive occurred during the 19th century, such as the Opium trade that the West trafficked into China. More recently, in the 20th century, the US made sure that after WWII China was granted a permanent seat on the UN Security Council and created institutions that guarded against discriminatory acts and unfair policies, which further established China as a recognized world power, as well as additional protection from the West for developing countries.
Furthermore, it is not inevitable that China becomes the next hegemon. Remember, China also has severe domestic problems that they have to face. Thus, Americans should not overreact to what they perceive as an eventual usurpation of influence in the world. China has skyrocketing rates of pollution and environmental degradation, soaring unemployment, rampant corruption, a social welfare net in tatters, and rising income inequalities. Moreover, China’s population-control policy will soon have dramatic effects in the upcoming years in tending with their rapidly increasing senior class accompanied by an insufficient labor force.
What the US did post World War II was establish international institutions that brought countries closer together with the objective of avoiding future wars between great powers. As well, the proliferation of nuclear weapons has made war between great powers even more unlikely. Also, the Western system is not run solely by one hegemon, but by a number of powers who continuously engage with one another, compromise with each other, and come to conclusions together, instead of one hegemon or empire dictating the rules to all. Moreover, the system is designed to accommodate rising world powers. For instance, the IMF and the World Bank give institutional voice in these organizations based on economic shares. In other words, as an economy gets larger, the percentage of votes in these respective institutions gets larger. This also means that if China were to overtake the US as the strongest world power, the US would still have an influential voice in these institutions if they were to continue to be a great power. Thus, it is more important for the US to focus on internal problems than worrying about China overtaking them as the top world power.
Moreover, the sheer number of countries that benefit from the current international system make it even more unlikely for China to try and overhaul the system. For example, the US and the Europe Union each have a strong incentive to maintain the current system. Thus, the balance of power scenario of a declining hegemon and a rising one is not the entire story in this situation. Multiple nations have benefited from this system and will be reluctant to change it. In essence, the US should not invest in making sure it is the sole hegemon because the repercussions that could manifest in a change of power are not as severe as past changes of power, where any new hegemon completely altered the international system.
In conclusion, what the US needs to do is not necessarily focus on China, but on the current international order, as well as their domestic issues. The US must reinvest and show support for the current international system. This would include pushing for a solution in the current Doha Round of trade talks, which is mainly hinged on developing countries wanting to enter into Western markets. The US should advocate for the abolition of agricultural subsidies to domestic agriculture industries in all developed nations for a solution to be reached. This will enhance developing countries support for the current international system. Also, the US should not overextend itself because of fear that China will overtake the Unites States’ position because the international changes will be minimal compared to past transitions of power.
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